Lockdown has changed us in many ways, apparently some we don’t even realize. A new example recently came up during the weekly supermarket shop.

Converting to online

Online delivery has really taken off over the last few years. Stuck at home, locked down, it has been a lifeline for many folks, reducing the risk from contact for customers and employees alike. However, despite these initial drivers, many of us have also found it, well, just really convenient.

Now I have always been a user of online, preferably mobile app, shopping. Travelling quite a bit for work in the old days, many was the time, when I would be shopping (normally on the 18:40 from Manchester). It added extra hours to the day to get stuff done.

However, at the time, shopping for milk, eggs, flour, butter, baking powder, sugar, blueberries and maple syrup never really crossed my mind. (Blueberry pancakes btw, if you are culinary-minded!).

Supermarket shopping was always something I loved to do. Yes, getting there was a chore, but once there it presented me with a shop full of combinations and possibilities. Not something I thoughts of giving up until I had to.

But now I have, what a time saver… click, click, click and it is done.

How things have changed

And, this brings me on to what I noticed has changed. Yes, online shopping has been great, but what struck me, is how this has also changed our expectations and perceptions of time too.

Only last week I was in the middle of something, the doorbell went and the supermarket shop had arrived.

My reaction, not “how convenient, this saves me so much time”, but more “sigh, the supermarket is here, I have to put it all away”…

I mean listen to it… I now get the food, selected for me, packed up and actually delivered to the front door… probably saving me 2 hours in my week and I am still grumpy about it… what do I need next? Do I need the food actually put in the cupboards, have it cooked for me… seriously what gives! Are we all getting lazy?

Actually, I think it all comes down to our ever-changing expectations. As our world accelerates and becomes more convenient, so the bar of expectations raises too.

Transformation acceleration

Back at the office we have also been through massive changes too.

Remote working, use of video calls, file sharing, instant collaboration across borders, the world has become a more online, instant and smaller place. There is no doubt this has been great and saved us a huge amount of time too.

However, has this also changed our perceptions of time too? Are we more grumpy about the lack of instant response to our messages, slowness in making decisions, speed in booking meetings or having the technology not working perfectly when you jump from one meeting to the next? Okay I admit it, maybe I am, sometimes!

Quick, quick, slow

More and more as things open up, we are going to be back out and about again. It will be part wonderful and part stressful especially the later if we don’t reign in our expectations a little I fear…. if you have ever tried joining a conference call on the train, you already know that a video teams call is just not going to work!

And, sometimes, things just take time. Time allows events to pass, ideas to percolate and even thinking to happen. Just like making dinner, sometimes if you want something great it cannot be rushed…

We just need to be conscious of our behaviour, taking it fast when needed, but also respecting our (and each others) time when it can add more value.

As I get out and about, it will be something to reflect on… likely looking out of the window on the train… in between online shopping on course!

Have a good weekend everyone.

Petrol crisis, gas crisis… carbon dioxide, chicken, tomato sauce, milkshakes, beer… the headlines have been rich the last few weeks with stories about labour shortages and supply chain issues.

Outside there shortages themselves, the headlines also reveal a couple of interesting observations.

1. Just how quickly we resort to panic buying – individualism rules, our bias to to look after number one, of family unit, rather than playing as a team across society
2. The headlines in some way clearly define what we really care about – we are not that interesting in ‘just in time’ – interconnected supply chains and resourcing, but impact my sneaky friday night take out (okay or Tuesday lunchtime), I am going to be upset and pay attention.

It has now been a year since the last wave of panic buying, the great toilet roll crisis of 2020 (yes going to the toilet is clearly something else we all care deeply about too, who would have thought!). In the intervening time we seem to have learned little, despite arguably the pandemic bringing some communities closer together for a while.

Faced with shortages, however, to keep the show on the road, not to mention the car and getting the kids to school, stocking up makes still makes sense. It is still our psychological default, nothing has changed.

Everything is linked

Last week I mentioned inflation, specifically wage inflation, which is a related specter that is also beginning to raise its head again.

Just as in our personal level, at the individual business level, keep the show on the road, paying more just makes sense. However, if we all do it, inflation will kick in, and if we panic hyperinflation is a real danger.

In some ways, how could we not expect impacts from the pandemic? You cannot shut down the global economy, pretty much for a year, sit people at home, change the way they work and not expect change.

However combining these impacts, lurid headlines, amplified by social media, overlaid on our own cultural bias on self-reliance, it is a heady mix. I fear we are at a critical time.

Balloon inflation

This brings me back to work and the question for this week. If we do see significant inflation, what will the impact be on the collections industry and what should we do, today, to mitigate impacts?

As those who bought a house in the 1970s, with a mortgage for £10,000, found if inflation can erode debt. The value of £1 in 1970 was more than it is in 2020. Yes, interest rates were high at the time, but if they drop again in the future, and you still have a job, then paying off a debt can become easier.

Critically this does rely on borrowers having a job and wage increases to keep pace with inflation.

For those without a job, stretched incomes or in an industry where wages are static, the outlook is troubling. The ability to pay decreases, arrears will increase together with defaults.

Then we come to the time value of money. With inflation, the effective value of money will erode faster. Simply waiting to collect or receive funds will actually reduce the value of what is received (in purchasing power terms).

Debt purchasers, with long investment horizons could be particularly hit, in terms of valuations, and collecting early is going to be key. Maximise cash flow, keep the money working for you.

Utility defaults

This brings me neatly to the topic of the recent wave of collapse in the UK utility provider market. Another two suppliers are out of business this week.

This is, of course, distressing for their customers, and particularly a companies employees, who are now in a position to have to find new roles as the customers get consolidated into larger providers.

With wholesale supply prices high and fewer providers in the market, prices will ultimately need to go up (…more inflationary pressue). However in the short term cash flow again is critical to stay afloat.

For those on the precipice of insolvency it may be too late. However for those still with a little time the importance of a robust accounts receivable and collections process cannot be overstated.

Cash and extra cashflow is sitting right there, on the balance sheet, that can make a real difference to people’s lives (including helping customers get out of debt)…

Something to ponder more on Monday. In the meantime have a good weekend everyone.

Crikey, so many people I spoke with this week were either changing jobs or new people who were leaving and struggling to recruit for open positions.

And, this was not just in the UK but across other markets, it seemed.

What is going on? Questions have been racing through my mind.

• Has a year working from home been too much for us. We cannot stand it anymore and need a change to get back to the office? Or
• Are people now being asked to return to the office, but they secreting like the remote working, so no thank you and time to change role?
• Have we had just had enough? We are now getting bored with what is the same in the same room at home, and…. JUST NEED A CHANGE OF SCENE… rather urgently in fact?
• Or is this the same change that would have happened normally over the last 18months, but now crunched in to September and October? Probably to be honest.

Whatever the answer, but it is really happening and causing issues with filling roles. With the laws of supply and demand if this continues this will undoubtedly have knock on impact to salaries. Great news for candidates, but for the rest of us this will also have a knock on effect on prices too.. is this the start of the inflationary cycle, the one we all expected, I wonder?

A little bird told me

My other experiment this week was live tweeting during the Credit Connect Technology Think Tank conference. The conference itself was interesting, with as normal plenty of good discussion and new ideas.

As is usual at events these days, the social hastags were up to use at the start. Normally there is not much activity and I wondered if it was possible to get some dynamic conversations going on the side?…. not much success I am afraid…

It seems collections industry people are just not twitter people, and although there was a better response on LinkedIn, it was still not that dynamic. Instagram, Pinterest, SnapChat, TikTok are clearly still a long way off!

This is of course in stark contrast to the (particularly younger) customer base, who, together with Facebook, seem to live on these social media platforms. (certainly in my house).

Are we missing a trick here?

This is of course a potential opportunity to connect, build brand relevance and have conversations with these segments. It probably really is and if you want to understand, be relevant and hire from what is a growing segment of society we are going to have to learn how use this medium.

What’s next then?

Of course, even social media itself is getting old. Many conversations have already carved off into private WhatsApp groups. A bit like a private club, these are great if you are included, but not much help if you are not.

So what is next best for a work application? I am experimenting with Discord. Yes this was primarily for gamers, but you can also think of it as an Open Source version of Slack and anyone, not just those in a limited set of companies, can join. This could be an interesting location for more interactive, yet public, discussion. I will let you know how it goes… you can join the channel here if you are interested too.

This week has undoutbedly been a long week and the tweeting also much harder work than I expected.

So it is time for a rest, maybe some TV, even a book(!), instead of social media tonight… that would be novel.

Have a good weekend everyone.

…. if you want to follow my twitterings, I am @chris_w_tweet.