The OG is not AI

This week, the topic of AI came up in my Italian lesson. We were reflecting on just how much has changed over the last few years.

What was unthinkable only a few years ago is now possible (including high-quality translations that far surpass my somewhat mediocre efforts… I’m still not very good, feeling old, but still trying!).

This digital revolution thingy, has been incredible and, at times, unfathomable: from the invention of the computer (yes I remember a world before computers!), to smartphones and AI. The progress is stunning, and it seems to be accelerating.

AI it feels is now starting to embed itself more and more into my life and my working practices at work. Increasingly it is that ‘handy helper’ that, frankly, allows me to get more done – beit language translation (not strong there), document formatting, or more recently image, presentation, and even song creation (an operatic piece about the problems of eating the turkey was a particular hit over the holidays!).

Of course, none of this comes without dangers, and I’m not talking about bias, transparency, or AI hallucinations, all of which have been discussed at length elsewhere.

No, I’m talking about it embedding itself so deeply in our processes that we become reliant on it, and I can already feel it starting to dull some skills, ones that used to be important (my spelling is getting even worse for sure!)

This is, of course, no different from other leaps in techology throughout history.

One hundred years ago, many people fixed their own shoes, and certainly knew how to sew… not so much today.

It’s not that the needs went away, just with automation we have access to mass produced alternatives that save us time, but they have also, as a results, become more generic and derivative. We may be facing a similar future with AI.

The service industry is often a hive of activity, collating information, creating content, media, and presentations, often in volume. With AI it is likely going to come under increasing pressure.

After all, why do it by hand when it can be done at the click of a button, automatically in a few minutes?

And for all the gnashing of teeth and protests about it not proper, we have to be honest: in many cases the output is as good as, or better than, what would have been produced ‘manually’. In 5 years, with hindsight, it is likely much of the resistance is simply going to be seen as us struggling to come to terms with the fact that the world is changing around us.

It is at times like these that history can teach us a lot, at least by analogy.

When the motor car was invented, how many horse-drawn carriage providers survived? Some may have done for a while – perhaps even for a generation – but the writing was on the wall. Many went out of business, save for a smart few who adapted, building coaches or indeed eventually high end supercars. Closer to home, we saw similar patterns with shoes too. In both the market split between generic mass-market output and high-end bespoke creativity.

I think we will see a similar pattern with AI.

The creation of mass market high quality content, in volume, is becoming cheaper by the day. This content is impressive, but (like my song) isn’t unique and does sound slightly generic. AI afterall still needs that seed of original content and a prompt to be created.

So whilst is going to become ever easier to produce more and more content, what it won’t do is create the flawed, original madness of truly original design or ideas – however crazy or poorly explained they may be.

Yes it can help polish them for us, for sure, but creating something genuinely new is harder.

And while all this progress puts a lot of roles at risk, it does also mean that original thinkers, researchers, and songwriters are not going to disappear. In fact, their work may become even more valued.

In a sea of generic content, original content will be gold dust and will command a premium. This is the original content from which everything else new will be generated and it will also change the economic landscape.

Now, we cannot all become Italian shoe designers, brilliant composers, artists, or writers… but we do all have strengths. So what are those strengths? Where can we each be original, and what can we bring to the table?

That’s a thought we all need to take back to the office next week. I think it may become ever more important.

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Outlandish Predictions for 2026

Having made it through the new year celebrations it is now time to take stock and turn out focus on just what will happen this year.

There is of course no shortage of punditry and armchair opinion online, however here are some links to some of the more reputable, better ones, and a couple that are not.

  • Goldman Sachs – Overall there is Global Growth
  • KPMG  – The UK economy however is expected to cool
  • McKinsey – AI remaining a top priority for many firms
  • Gartner – and AI continues to develop and evolve. AI Supercomputing and AI Native!? (via Forbes)
  • Saxo Bank – Quantum Computing, could it happen quicker than expected… (Outrageous predictions are a personal favourite)
  • Ipsos – 71% of the public think 2026 will be better than 2025 (58% in UK)

… and there are some interesting tech predictions too (Technology magazine)

Of course we should not forget the prediction markets and futurist firms too

  • Quantumrun – an interesting list here – take your pick – I liked “90% of online content will be artificial intelligence (AI)-generated. Likelihood: 60 percent”
  • Polymarket – waiting to head into the year

And then of course there is Nostrodamas and Baba Vanga who are always there to cheer us up.

From RO-AR.com, here are some trends to watch

  1. Arrears levels – economic structural issues are likely to continue to impact arrears, making existing arrears sticky and solutions harder to find.  Expect focus on manner of communication and customer contact
  2. Regulatory Data – Data will become even more important with ever increasing transparency. Consumer duty is increasingly shifting to evidence and outcomes
  3. BNPL collections – with BNPL falling into the FCA remit, expect an increase in scrutiny and complaint levels
  4. Energy debt relief – With focus from the regulator on debt relief schemes and high levels of arrears the utilities sector will accelerate their continued modernisation of collections journeys
  5. AI gets practical – A movement of AI pilots increasingly into production.  Greater emphasis on governance and control.
  6. Digital and Assisted humans – Self-Serve and Omnichannel is already here, but will be increasingly supplemented with AI tools, including AI Voice.
  7. Quantum Computing – We need to watch quantum computing, this could be an earthquake for many of our exiting digital processes

Of course, some or indeed none of these may come to pass… and something we will need to monitor throughout the year.

Best wishes for 2026 everyone.

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Is anyone else getting Christmas jet lag?

It is a strange time of year. The build-up and excitement of Christmas is over, and we are stuck waiting for New Year’s Eve and the start of 2026.

For many of us it is a busy time, visiting friends, family and relatives. For others it can be a lull, a change of pace from the frenetic run-up in December.

For me, this year, it is undoubtedly the latter.

For some reason December seemed particularly busy this year, so much so it felt like a giant inbox exercise having to prioritise to get everything in. Which by default meant some things did just not get done in time.

  • Sending cards on Christmas Eve – check
  • Use festive greetings in emails – rather than action-orientated “Many thanks” – 23 Dec (sorry about this one!)
  • Watching a Christmas movies – not even started!

The only thing that I did seem to be successful at was munching through a significant number of boxes of mince pies. A strategy which in hindsight was not a wise move either for my waistline or blood sugar level!

But with all this activity, the post-Christmas doldrums have now arrived.

Now, I have not been anywhere and some days not even ventured out, but I seem to have gradually evolved to a very strange sleeping pattern.

Awake at 5am, and then by the end of the day, so tired, so off to bed at 9. It is as if I have moved to the Middle East or somewhere, but without the sunny weather, warmth and food. It is a very strange effect – Christmas Jet Lag.

I mean, it has been useful: setting 2026 goals, reviewing 2025, writing blogs and of course answering that RFP that always comes out just before the break!

But this is not what the holidays are for. They are for resting, relaxing and most importantly, sleeping in a bit.

Of course, these doldrums are not new, and have been seen as a good time for that more relaxed engagement that can be fun too. Think of all the year end reviews and roundups that frequent at this time… my favourite being Saxo banks outrageous predictions… (RO-AR’s version to follow 🙂 ).

This year with with AI, they seem to be getting even more personalised and sophisticated too. It seems I have…

  • Had a reflective year (ChatGPT)
  • Have had an affinity with rollercoaster videos (YouTube)
  • Demystifyed regulation and tech (LinkedIn) (secretly pleased with this one – lol)
  • All whilst listening to alternative rock (apparently – Spotify)…
  • …. and spending disturbing amounts at my local Pret and Starbucks (Bank) (not quite so happy with this !)

Interesting yes… disturbingly accurate… most likely… reflection for change in some areas.. definitely!

So with a few days left before we all return to the office, a focus on trying to relax, reset the bodyclock to holiday time… and get in the zone for 2026

Now I just need to mow the lawn and put away the garden furniture first!

Have a good year end everyone!

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