Barbeques – AI and the Great British Summer

With only a hint of sunshine, in Britain we normally get very excited, breaking out the shorts, T-shirts and start dreaming of barbecues.

But, this weekend the flag was really raised, an Amber alert… this is it… the once-a-year event… the one we, like Christmas, we have been planning for… yes a summer’s day, and at the weekend.

Panic has ensued with emergency trips to the supermarkets to find burgers and charcoal, calls to and from friends inviting each other over, and of course putting wine in the freezer just to try to get it ready in time.

… and now, having stuffed myself on too many hot dogs, burnt burgers and marshmallows, I am sitting feeling rather full, reflecting on the week that was.

The White Heat of Technology

The narrative around AI continued to rumble on this week. AI is clearly no longer confined to the realms of science labs of Silicon Valley, it has stepped into the public consciousness. This is especially with concerns around security and if additional regulatory oversight is required – a new sense of fear sprang up last week.

It, of course, was also not helped, by several of the largest tech companies, who also echoed this sentiment… although you have to wonder how much this is motivated by a need to slow down development, just so they can catch up competitively... although maybe I am just being a little jaded here.

A Rational Approach

There’s no denying that some concerns around AI are valid. It’s a powerful tool with potential implications for privacy, job security, with ethical considerations. However, treating AI as an uncontrollable force that will bring down society also has dangers.

This, for example, could easily lead to political overreaction, resulting in over-constraint. This simply could hinder development and potentially move elements to the shadows, where they do not need to comply.

Or, maybe the service will be simply restricted, or banned for use in some businesses or situations. This could remove the potential for finding use cases before they even got started. (for example in medical use and the understanding of complex biological systems).

It feels like a measured, sensible, approach is needed.

The New Recruit

As presented today AI is a tool for business, a helper. I kind of think of it like a recent recruit in a firm.

This recruit shows tremendous promise but lacks the full range of skills and experience to be trusted with the company’s most sensitive tasks.

Just like we wouldn’t pull a random person off the street and give them free rein to negotiate critical business deals, approve loans or handle customers in sensitive situations, nor should we with AI.

Just like the recruit, there is a need for expert training, guidelines, segregation of duties, oversight and safeguards. Why should we treat AI any differently?

The key to control here is, not constraining the technical detail, but as Paul Sweeney, from Webio, explained in my interview recording this week, it comes down to good policy and governance. I agree with him.

The Summer of AI

While this summer may come and go, leaving us with nothing more than a few extra freckles and pounds heavier from all the eating. It does seem like AI is here to stay, and how we choose to embrace it will shape our future.

So before we throw it on the proverbial barbecue, we need a bit of caution, a touch of understanding, not to mention good governance to ensure we maximise this opportunity and minimize risk.

To not do so, to panic, could lead to overreaction, unintended consequences and just like the British summer the optimism of AI will be over before it has started….

Have a good week everyone.

…PS it is Sunday and now it is raining… Summer was good while it lasted!


Headlines of the week

  • Consumer Behavior Shifts Amid COVID-19: Reduced supermarket visits, increased own-label purchases, and loyalty scheme reliance have reshaped consumer habits.
  • Personalization Becomes Crucial: The pandemic prompted three-quarters of customers to switch stores, products, and buying methods.
  • Europe Witnesses Decline in Card Fraud: Reported cases of card fraud in 2023 show a significant decrease compared to 2019.
  • Physical Channels Still Preferred: Despite digital banking trends, one in three UK customers favors in-person banking experiences.
  • Food Prices Surge Despite Energy Relief: Food prices rise by 19% in April, contributing to inflation despite reduced energy costs.
  • UK Businesses Prioritize Cost Cutting: Over 60% of businesses shift focus from growth to cost-cutting strategies due to inflation and interest rates.
  • Fuel Poverty Persists in the UK: Approximately 6.6 million households remain trapped in fuel poverty despite some respite from high energy prices.
  • Digital Prepaid Cards Expected to Surge: The usage of digitally issued prepaid cards is predicted to increase globally by 2028.
  • Lack of Awareness for Financial Support: Only 30% of customers are aware of available financial assistance from water companies.
  • UK Homes Have Small Average Size: The UK has one of the smallest average property sizes globally, with homes measuring 818 square feet on average.
  • Financial Education Gap in Children: Experts call for increased emphasis on developing financial skills in children, particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds.
  • Mortgage Rates Rise, Deals Pulled: Banks withdraw hundreds of home loan deals as fixed mortgage rates increase.
  • Transparency for AI-Generated Content: EU commissioner proposes labeling AI-generated content to enhance transparency and accountability.
  • Revolut Surpasses 30 Million Customers: Revolut, the global financial super app, reaches over 30 million retail customers and processes 400 million monthly transactions.
  • Limited Awareness of Water Company Support: Only 30% of customers are aware of the financial assistance options available from water companies.
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Interest rates – rollercoaster

Having had a complete switch off, for a week off – I am getting back in the swing of things this morning and catching up.

Obviously, the debt packager restrictions have been a headline, as have the rumbling noises of increasing interest rates and potential impact on the housing market (house prices seem to be up there with the state of the NHS and price of a pint of beer in the national psyche, so expect this to go on for a bit longer too… )

But, the following article caught my eye this morning… Interest rate caps in some US states at 36%…

A maximum interest rate cap?

In Europe there are already maximum interest rate restrictions for consumer lending in some markets… nearby examples include France at around 21.24% and Ireland at 48%.

In the UK we have generally decided to opt for a more complex set of regulations rather than a pure cap, with daily amounts, total repayments and fee limits. 

This being said, in the UK you can still find rates online commonly above 50-90% APR for sub-prime loans, above 25% for near prime and even prime credit cards at 21%.

Are changes to come?

With interest rates rising and inflation squeezing incomes you have to wonder if more changes are due here. 

This has been previously debated and would certainly change the dynamics in some areas of the credit market, impacting both general access to credit and the margins for lending businesses, many of whom are already squeezed by an increasing cost of funding…

With media noise around lenders/lending in general increasing, could this easily be seen politically as a popular, quick, easy target and change to offset the increasing cost of living? If the case it could be something we may have to react to.

What to do now?

At the moment, I would hasten to add, this is in the realms of complete speculation and conjecture… however I do like to be prepared, and much of this is good business practice in any case.

If there were changes, it would, of course, put pressure on the collections/receivables process yet again, intensifying focus before any effects for constricted lending start to flow through.

Making sure that these processes are efficient, effective, with a demonstratable duty of care towards consumers and borrowers is important today… it would be critical should this happen…

And, as we learnt from the pandemic, getting ahead of the curve, being ready and flexible makes all the difference in how easily you can respond to handle the change.

There are of course many ways to review your processs, be it from full process/customer journey reviews to looking at resources online at lower price points… it all helps to compare vs peers and get ideas. (drop me a note if you would like some pointers for these too).

However, although the UK is a leader in many areas (especially consumer treatment), there is also an opportunity to learn from other markets.

Many of these are already managing under these restrictions already and by listening to peers elsewhere, and sharing experience, we can also get better…

So maybe it is time to get out the travelling shoes and get out there a little more too…. something to also ponder this summer.

And what was I up to on vacation….?

Having not been on a rollercoaster for 30 years (like a fool…) I ventured to Blackpool to try the latest ones out. 

I am afraid of heights and no one will believe me when I say I was more scared on the stairs… honestly.

Anyhow the picture tells the complete story really – complete terror

… sometimes you just have to be brave and throw yourself into things…

Have a good week everyone.

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The cat’s whiskers- Content is a-changing

Being, yet another bank holiday and some great weather again, this weekend I felt the pressure to get outdoors… The garden office is now being opened (so if it rains next week it is all my fault of course).

However working outside, there were also a couple of observations this week.

  • Firstly, I realised if cats learn to open fridges, we’re in big trouble. My cat has clearly worked out that this is where the food is… and is taking a great interest, really great interest whenever I open the door… I suspect a plan is brewing… and half expect to stumble over MS project plans and engineering diagrams behind the sofa.
  • The tea and biscuit debate continues… Twix, and chocolate hobnobs have moved up with digestives still in the lead… with ginger snaps making a surprise entry… and sorry no dunking… I am off camping this weekend so it is highly likely Tunnocks Tea Cakes will also make an appearance… full report next week.
  • Work-wise, Emojis seem to be increasingly infiltrating LinkedIn posts… my suspicion is that this is the subtle hand of ChatGPT at work… it has a predilection for emojis and cannot seem not to help itself… it could also be that this is an indicator of increasing ChatGPT usage, which is also happening.
  • The volume of content marketing also continues to grow… it feels we are moving from a busy doing to a busy selling period. What has me a little concerned is, what with economic trouble in the background, this could be a signal for more troubled times ahead (ie if businesses are looking for customers but no one is buying)… one to watch and listen for.
  • As noted in my discussion with Kevin Still this week too, we realised we have less that 70 days to go until the FCA consumer duty goes live…this is not a lot of time and the topics of good metrics to evidence good outcomes keeps coming up… something to expand on next week.
  • Lastly around content. I have been reflecting on attention spans and long-form articles. Are our attention spans becoming shorter and patience with reading becomes thinner?… my data says I think so… So a new format this week and better summaries of articles, videos and news not being posted on ro-ar.com. Let me know what you think and whether this works in the comments below.

Have a good week everyone


Stories from last week

  • Sam Altman expressed concerns about AI regulations in the EU:
    During a side panel discussion hosted by the University College London, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, expressed his concerns about the European Union’s definition of “high-risk” systems in proposed AI regulations.
  • Ofgem announced a 17% reduction in the energy price cap:
    UK regulator Ofgem announced a significant 17% decrease in the energy price cap, which is expected to result in lower energy bills for millions of consumers.
  • Lenders agree to pay out up to £47 million in redress to borrowers in difficulty:
    The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) announced that nearly 100 lenders have agreed to provide redress, including reduced or temporary payment options and changes to loan terms, for borrowers facing financial difficulty.
  • Young investors prioritize long-term goals when dating over investing:
    The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) conducted research revealing that young investors prioritize long-term goals when dating more than when making investment decisions.
  • British individuals are the biggest victims of card fraud in Europe:
    British individuals are identified as the most targeted victims of card fraud in Europe.
  • Inflation falls to 8.7% in the UK:
    The Office for National Statistics (ONS) provideed insight into the inflation figures for April.
  • Average income in the UK is £242 short each month:
    A campaign to ‘take on poverty’ and address the urgent needs of individuals impacted by low incomes and rising costs was launched last week.
  • OpenAI may consider leaving the EU due to AI regulations:
    Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, mentioned during the side panel discussion that OpenAI may consider leaving the EU if the proposed AI regulations classify their language models, such as ChatGPT and GPT-4, as high-risk systems. (although he has since rowed back from this position)
  • FCA is working with lenders to improve treatment of borrowers in financial difficulty:
    The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is collaborating with lenders to enhance their approach to supporting borrowers facing financial difficulties and is seeking significant improvements in borrower treatment.
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