Well, it is the end of the first week back after the holidays and we seemed to have all survived.

This week, for me, is always tough. My body has all too easily got used to getting up late, consuming high levels of sugary products (mainly mince pies), eating unlimited unhealthy snacks and let’s just say not much exercise.

So the start of this week always feels a bit like a cold shower… you know it will do you good, but you really don’t want to step in!

Fortunately, the way it has fallen this year, everything has been relatively quiet, with many folks still off, or in planning mode at least, we seem to have had a bit of a breather to get ourselves sorted out before the intensity starts in earnest the coming Monday.

Rabbits everywhere

One of the things I did realise this break was that one of the rabbit holes I easily get sucked into, is interesting data. Over the holidays I found this excellent article on vulnerability by area across the UK. It is worth a read in itself.

This is a joint venture between the Urban Institute and Lowell, and a bit of a promo piece. However, by linking through to their site, they have also made all their data available at an even more granular level. The file is somewhat large, but merging this with other data tables yields some interesting insights on the UK over time.

All of this got me thinking… about data, raw data, and how this bubbles up to insights and opinion. It is good, refreshing sometimes, to go back to data and get the data points… it helps with forming more informed opinions.

Nowhere is this more true, unfortunately, than the pandemic, where looking at facts and stats directly sometimes feels like the only way to actually understand what is going on.

Data analysis however can be tricky, and by comparison, listening to opinions (facts digested through someone else) is quick and easy… it is no wonder we often take this path… but here is the question, does it lead to the right decisions and outcomes?

If the opinion is trusted and expert, based on facts, maybe. If the opinion is based on others opinions of opinions, well maybe not. It is the case of listener beware.

Crunch time

Of course, it is not always about the data, and this year, just in case you had not noticed, there is quite a lot going on.

Already this year we have seen increasing COVID case levels with Omicron, a return to remote working and lurid details of a potential new variant. It is clearly the impact from the pandemic is not going anywhere any time soon.

Then closer to home, in collections, are already seeing things bubbling.

• Buy Now Pay Later – is this pushing consumers into more debt with a new survey from StepChange
• Increasing wholesale fuel prices, further squeezing the utilities industry and the consumer
• Increasing lending and credit card use
• and, the prospect of inflation… even pocket money has gone up in anticipation it seems

You just wonder (one does), with all the delayed anticipated influences from the pandemic turmoil, if this is actually going to be the year when we see the big impact… hopefully not, but certainly possible.

A new objective

So this sets the plan for this year… to access and crunch more data to be able to inform better opinions… be prepared and try to define what is happening, going to happen and find actions to mitigate as best as possible beforehand… not an easy task, I know… but it is good to have an objective I suppose.

And, as we can see from the article data is less of a problem than the crunching and creating space to think and make sense of it all… still it could be very interesting

In the meantime it is the weekend… so time to return, switch off work, and finish that leftover box of chocolates… next week awaits

[If you would like to access my newsfeeds or data dashboards I can add you to the list, just drop me a note below (or find details here)]

Is it just me, or is the end of 2021 starting to feel all very familiar to the end of 2020?… you know the one where many of us had Christmas and the holidays cancelled at the last minute… anyone remember “Lockdown part II”.

With the introduction to Omicron and cases now increasing at quite the rate, governments have been reacting with vaccine mandates, booster programmes and this weekend travel restrictions and lockdowns.

Of course, it is not just the prospect of restrictions that are the concern for the holidays, but also the virus itself. With a high prevalence of cases, apparent repeat infections, it is all getting concerning and the risk of catching seemingly increasing too… mercifully the hospitalisation rate has been low, but still not great… it is a sure way to ruin Christmas day and spoil the week afterwards too…

All in all it is not very festive news really, and it has put a bit of a downer on the run-up to the holidays this week.

Boiling all this down, it seems like there is a choice…

1. Be glum, go into hiding, do nothing, all to protect Christmas day… or
2. Not worry, (yes be careful, protect others, but.. don’t worry too much) have fun and run the very real risk of being sick over Christmas.

Quite the choice really, one that reminded me of game theory type thinking… and set me thinking what is the most optimal choice.

Laying this out there are 4 real options and their impact on the Christmas season.

	Avoid COVID	Catch COVID
Isolation – avoid everyone	– – +	– – –
Don’t isolate – be careful – see folks	+ + +	+ + –

The prospect of have a glum time before Christmas, and the possibility of still getting sick does seem especially miserable.

The situation will, of course, be different for everyone, different pressures and weight of importance for different things, however, it does seem, whilst we need to be super careful not spread it more, we also need live life in the moment and enjoy the run-up to the holidays, safely, where we can… let’s make the most of it however we can.

Enjoy the week and best wishes for the season … next update in the new year, all the best for 2022 everyone

The festive season sometimes feels a bit like a fast train rushing through a station.

All is quiet. Then in the distance, you make out some lights, moving slowly, but surely in your direction… but it is a long way off, no need to pay attention.

Then rails then start to dance with a high-pitched tinkling, like lasers from some sci-fi movie.

Then all of a sudden it is at the end of the platform. Bright lights, noise, and action… a party barrelling through at 100mph. Those that don’t like it take cover, those that do revel in the exhilaration of all the energy rushing past.

Then it is gone, all is quiet, except for bits of wind disturbing rubbish on the track…. what exactly was all that about you are left thinking.

Now maybe I have spent too many hours waiting for trains at the station (or maybe I am just getting old!), but we are at that point now for this year… Christmas is at the end of the platform… and heading towards us fast.

Plan B

Of course this year, like last, we have COVID in the background… a collective wet blanket on festivities and seeing people it seems. With 2021 concerningly following a similar pattern, this week the government here announced, Plan B, a return of more restrictions. More wearing masks, and as of tomorrow, we all need to work remotely if possible.

I wrote in previous weeks about an optimism building. There was definitely a push in some sectors to get people back on-site in the office. And, this week, with the announcement, you could feel a collective sigh from HR departments everywhere as despite all of their efforts, and admittedly working against some resistance, we were all told, once again to work from home… not much you can do really.

Of course, how much people will pay attention to this remains to be seen. Certainly looking at the traffic, shops, and restaurants, over the weekend and in the evening it seemed as busy as ever… and we all, of course, know that the “virus only works during the workday” [err: not true]… or maybe just the balance of risk is different when seeing family and friends [err: likely true]….so whether it will be busy tomorrow morning, on a Monday, at 8 am, getting to the office, the week before Christmas, remains to be seen!…

Remote working dashboard

With this in mind and with so much change going on, I also pulled together a remote-on-site working survey this week, really to find out what people think and are feeling about remote vs on-site work. It is going to be launched via LinkedIn on Monday, but if you would like a sneak preview you can also access here too -> Let’s get back to the office?

Consumer Duty

The other big news this last week was the launch of a new FCA consultation on Consumer Duty. These proposals have the intention to set a higher standard of care for consumers from financial firms.

Firms will need to act on delivering good outcomes for consumers and be able to monitor and evidence these outcomes.

– act in good faith
– avoid foreseeable harm, and
– enable and support retail customers to pursue their financial objectives

A new Consumer Duty. Feedback to CP21/13 and further consultation

Of course, the collections process, often being a litmus test of good outcomes across the rest of an organization, will be front and centre of this.

Policy, process, control and reporting are all going to be critical, and as Kevin Still discussed last week it is something we need to get ready for now.

This is another train en-route and it is a big freight train at that. We to make sure we are not surprised when it arrives, it will likely not be a party.

Light training

I think this is enough talk of trains for one week… so think it is, therefore, time to put some belated decorations up… or ‘winter lights’ as they are called here… Why ‘winter lights’? This provides the perfect cover to leave them up way into later, into the end of January, cheering up the dark days after the festive train has left the station… something I feel we may need this year.

Have a good week everyone.