Week 10 of lockdown: Where next…?

Posted on May 24, 2020 by Chris Warburton

The psychological relaxation of restrictions seems to continue apace with traffic on the roads and beaches full, but the question top of mind this week is where next now… the observations for this week.

  • The volume of internet memes definitely seems to have subsided… seems we are all ready to get out and move on… certainly feels these observations are getting harder to find too.
  • I have managed to buy flour locally, so I have been making bread and yet more toasted sandwiches. In fact I seem to be focused on recreating the Pret-A-Manager menu… Pain au Raisin and Pain au chocolate are still to be perfected.. but who knew!
  • The COVID haircut… I finally gave in and got my first this week… not too bad to be honest, it is harder than it looks and I will be returning to the barber when they are open.
  • Work-wise we did have some clarity from the FCA on the payment holiday extension which was big news – however this prompts to think about what plans we would need for another 3, 6 or even 9 months! (there’s a cheery thought 🙁 )

Have a good week everyone… @chris_w_tweet

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May 22 2020: Weekly roundup

Posted on May 23, 2020 by Chris Warburton

The big story at the end of this week was undoubtedly the decision by the UK bank regulator, the FCA, to extend the mortgage payment holiday period out by a further three months to the end of October.

This of course will be a huge relief to many banks, who whilst having seen volumes of customers in arrears drop the last few months (as people have used the various schemes), are expecting a huge increase once they end.

At the moment there are 1.8m mortgage customers in this situation, and this delay simply gives them more time to prepare.

For many customers, of course, interest is still being charged albeit not being currently paid. So the flip side of this announcement is a larger bill with higher monthly payments each month, will be due at the end of all this.

With more difficult economic news, this week, it is easy to see a situation where an increasing number of customers will now have more difficulty making payments.

And… the more this proverbial can is kicked down the road, the bigger the interest accrued and the bigger this problem could become. These things take time to evolve, but watch this space, it is likely going to get bumpy.

We have been discussing this scenario, for what seems like months now at work… the plans to help manage this….some tactical, some long term.

Fundamentally data is key. With this delay we do now have more time to gather new data, analyze the data we have, and get any (digital) infrastructure properly setup. The wave of change is going to be bigger, the risk higher – we have been given more notice and time to get ready to help. Now is the time on this.

In other news, there is also still discussion of negative interest rates in the UK rumbling around. This would be a first in the UK, and anyone with cash savings would be essentially paying to keep their money in the bank. This would be a seismic event. Although it may further reduce mortgage rates, this could be seen as another example of can-kicking. This is not to mention system impacts… I mean do we have confidence all the myriad of calculations in financial services work as well with a negative number?… this would keep me awake at night!

Lastly, the more fundamental changes in the workplace continue to appear to be moving with increasing pace.

  • There was this story regarding changes at the NHS, not known for being the most technically progressing, but being able to move forward :).
  • I also heard two instances of companies this week now reviewing their real estate strategies. Homeworking and flexible working is undoubtedly going to become more common and important going forward… (and secretly I think many of us, who are able to have the right set up at home (I would importantly qualify), are enjoying it too)!

Have a good weekend everyone…. @chris_w_tweet


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Week 9 of lockdown: Out and about… a little more

Posted on May 17, 2020 by Chris Warburton

It seemed like this last week the world decided enough is enough and we are all ready to get back to normal… restrictions were being lifted and it felt like the lockdown pressure went down somewhat at home and work… these are the observations for the week.

  • With less car travel and no traffic, shopping is now more by foot… and with more people out, as we all dutifully waited to carefully pass each other, I was in my first official people jam this week
  • However, not everyone seemed to have the same interpretation of social distancing in the queue… 2m is 2m surely not 75cm… everyone is definitely getting nearer
  • At work, work intensity has been steadily increasing everywhere. Everyone has been super busy, especially with exit strategy planning. However, with most of the day on conference calls, school work balance has been tough this week… we still need to remember that kids at home still need attention I think

Let’s see what this week brings, hopefully, the progress continues… have a good week everyone… @chris_w_tweet

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