The end of outbound calls as we know it?

Posted on May 8, 2016 by Chris Warburton

This week I was chatting with a couple of folks in Canada, as part of my new role at a new company.

Inevitably our conversation turned to contact strategy and in particular reflections on the use of predictive dialers in the UK.

Now, in Canada we were always careful with making calls, cautious with mobile phones, respecting times and timezones.  However the dialer still remained a big part of the day.

It was therefore initially surprising when I returned to the UK and observed just how the how little the dialer was being used.  Legislation I discovered, backed by high fines (up to £2mm) had really changed the industry and the outbound call was on the decline.

UK Rules:  Ahead of the curve?

For those not in the UK, these are the rules that generated the change.

  1. The ‘abandoned call’ rate shall be no more than three per cent of ‘live calls’ over a 24 hour period
  2. In the event of an ‘abandoned call’, a very brief recorded information message must be played within 2 seconds
  3. Calls which are not answered must ring for a minimum of 15 seconds before being terminated
  4. When an ‘abandoned call’ has been made, any repeat calls to that number in the following 72 hours may only be made with the guaranteed presence of a live operator (the ‘72 hour policy’)
  5. For each outbound call a Caller Line Identification (CLI) number needs to be presented
  6. Any call made to the CLI number cannot not be used as an opportunity to market to that person, without consent.  Records are to be kept for a minimum period of six months that demonstrate compliance with the above
  • Additionally, if your dialer thinks it has connected to an Answer Machine, then any extra calls made that day must guarantee an agent

Impact on Collection Operations

Other markets of course have similar rules. However with the high prevalence of answer machines and tough compliance requirements in place, the efficiency of dialers became limited.

And, it has had an impact on efficiency and staff morale.  Afterall staff who were used to talking with people and solving issues were now left listening to answer machines.

Alternatives have been sort and volumes have dwindled.

Customer centric

The regulatory focus in this particular case has been on reducing silent calls, and their impact on society.

Undoubtedly it has benefited many customers, the industry has innovated and the world has not fallen apart.

There are now more self serve options, rapport building and relationship based, focused conversations going on.  In many ways, for many companies this has been an opportunity, a way to offer a competitive advantage, to reboot relationships with customers, and it works.

Broader customer changes

However this also broadly reflects a wider trend of increasing customer influence and this is being seen across the various markets.

Customers are in control, demanding choices and influence.  It is important for us to react and react positively.  Something many leading players are doing already.

So what’s next

For the UK, we are now waiting for the output from the next OFCOM consultation.  Probably more change and it is important to be prepared.

  • There could be more capacity and strategy changes required.  Are these understood, anticipated should the changes come to pass?
  • Is there a plan of action or a checklist ready for when they are published?
  • Are potential impacts calculated and have they been clearly communicated (upwards) in your organisation… avoiding nasty surprises?

For other markets such as Canada, preparing for similar changes is also prudent.

  • Are you being proactive and introducing customer centric processes in the organisation?
  • Are you close to legislation and common practice in other markets?
  • Would you be ready if similar legislation was introduced in your market?

Ideas sharing

We all like to talk across markets and hear about the best ideas from the best people.  It should be no suprise if we see similar regulatory frameworks in a market near you soon.

So are outbound calls finished?  Not quite, there is still a lot of value, but fundamental change is afoot and the nature of the process will significantly evolve.

Time to hold onto our hats and get out in front of that change.

 

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The Rise of the Micro-Indicator: Getting the lead on leading indicators

Posted on April 11, 2016 by Chris Warburton

wave-545130_1920Office conversations often turn to finding the best measure for a particular process.

Opinions abound, there is heated discussion, however agreement is usually reached (only to be informed by IT there is no captured data available and no historical values!).

It is common in our search to try to look for a couple of ideal metrics.  We are looking for something that will explain our processes in simple terms, providing guidance on how and where we can improve performance.

Our hope is we can add it to the executive dashboard, freeing us from analysing and interpreting vast amounts of data and provide us time in the day to to focus on something else.

And there are some great measures out there; DSO, OEE, Write off rates, Cures per customer per hour per agent and cost per £$ collected are all good examples.

They are incredibly useful in understanding process performance, reporting and comparing against known standards.

However some caution is required and this is needed in part as each of these are lagged indicators.

Something occurs, it get measured, reported and we analyse the performance to understand why this happened.

Lagged Indicators

Lagged indicators are easy to understand, popular and great at explaining what just happened.  The past can also be a predictor of the future, especially in stable systems.  This is not always the case however.

Where there is significant process change, new patterns will not be necessarily be picked up straight away.  It can take time to see effects in results and if the impacts are negative, this can be vital time lost.

Leading Indicators

In order to solve this, we need to move further up stream and get an earlier warning.  It is often useful to find new measures, leading indicators.

Usually with a causal link or significant input to the lagged indicator, they are not a guarantee that something will happen, but are a useful indicator that something significant may occur.

And there are some famous examples

These measurements lead to the more traditional lagged economic measures, however better reflect what is going on now, rather than having to wait for data to accumulate.

Whilst they help in predicting future trends in lagged indicators, they still measure what is happening today.  It does buy some time for strategy adjustment, but often the outcome is already set and yet more time is needed.  Introducing the micro-indicator.

Micro-Indicators

Micro-indicators fall in a third category.  Small indicators that together point to a much bigger change underway, often before the larger event has even occurred.

An example is an earthquake.

  • The lagged indicator is the shaking from the earthquake.  The event has happened, the impacts are being measured.
  • The leading indicator is the ground starting to move, an earthquake starting.  If you live far away from the epicentre there is some time to react.  You do need to be quick however.
  • Micro-indicators are the subtle changes to bulges in the earth, the micro quakes that take place on surrounding faults, all before the earthquake.  In isolation they may not mean much, but taken together and interpreted correctly they can point to a much larger event happening.  They give everyone much more time to take action.

The same is true in business processes.  Micro-indicators are the small indicators that taken together can inform us early of events underway, allowing us time to react and adjust.  They can be invaluable.

The challenge

The challenge with this approach is the earlier you try to predict something the more uncertain the linkage to the final event can become.  Ie the probability that the movement in this measure will result in the larger event is reduced.

To manage this and get higher degrees of certainty, it is therefore important to measure multiple micro-indicators.  Measuring multiple micro-indicators increases your confidence that something that will occur.  It increases the probablity and allows you to buy that crucial time.

So is the search for the perfect indicator a waste of time?

Traditional measures remain incredibility useful.  They have formed the backbone of performance measurement for many years and form a big part of any BI suite.  It is still important to have a good blend of lagged and leading key indicators.

However identifying a few key micro-indicators can really help supplement these measures and buy yourself crucial time to adjust processes.  It can really help in generating the performance you need.

More data!

Yes this is more data and maybe is not the simple world we dream of.  But, in the quest to better understanding and control our processes maybe more, not less is better…..  (just a little more maybe…!)

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Leading indicators: there is more information than you think

Posted on March 22, 2016 by Chris Warburton

You can lead a horse to water, but cannot make it drink...A few weeks ago I was lucky enough to attended a talk by the Bank of England providing an overview of the UK, its economy and outlook.

Now whilst the discussion itself was very interesting (the latest report here), what I also found illuminating was the process the BoE uses to gather its information for forecasts, and the lessons we can learn in the rest of the business world.

The Bank of England process

As you would imagine they have teams of statisticians gathering data from multiple sources, with this data being fed to bank economists to ‎explain performance and forecast trends.

However they also have a team of regional agents, who roam the country observing economic conditions directly.  These agents speak with businesses, systematically recording what they hear and gathering ’the word on the street’.

It turns out that these indicators are actually excellent ‘leading’ indicators of economic changes, often providing information and insight before there is sufficient data to be seen in official statistics.

True in the rest of the business world

We also have teams of data analysts gathering data from multiple sources, presenting this information to management teams to explain performance and trends.  It is often the role of the Business Intelligence team these days.

However, how many of us also have ‘agents’ in each department, ‘systematically’ recording information that doesn’t come from these traditional data sources?

Expanding on traditonal measures

Unfortunately for many of us we continue to largely remain reliant on traditional metrics and forms of measurement.  We are left analysing this historical information to make data based decisions, trying to divine future performance.  Yes, we may hear customer feedback, but this is often anecdotal rather than robust systematic data input.

Just like the Bank of England, conversations with customers, suppliers and employees, recorded correctly, can provide additional valuable insight… and aid in this decision making process on a more timely basis.

An easy place to start

Whilst many companies do already have customer listening programs, these are typically targeted at improving customer satisfaction levels.

However structured correctly these can also provide an insight to economic conditions, changes to the market, competitor product development, outlook on future sales.  They should form part of your leading indicator metric suite.

Setting up your process

The BoE uses a points based system, however the key is ensuring that the program is defined, structured and supported.

Once you have support and the data has started to be gathered it needs to be reviewed not just in terms of what has happened or customer satisfaction, but also the wider view of what could this mean for the future, as indicators for other areas of the business.

Organisational Resistance?

Gathering anecdotal data and building leading indicators is never easy.  It feels there is a suspicion; an air of disbelief in the approach and it is always easy to return and retreat to the world of traditional metrics.

The value add

Whilst these traditional metrics are undoubtably invaluable, developing these additional data sources can yield valuable actionable data to help stay ahead.

After all if the Bank of England can do it, is there value to ‘double down‘ on a similar approach for us all?

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