Falling back into lockdown routine

Posted on November 8, 2020 by Chris Warburton

It was hard to keep up last week, there was so much going on news-wise… lockdown 2.0 in England, red zones in Italy, and escalating cases in France, also under a national lockdown… mind you all of this seemed to backseat to the US election… which seems to have now reached (albeit a somewhat messy) conclusion… it did make a for a change I suppose… back to normal now – if we can call is normal?… observations from last week.

  • Even with lockdown restarting, there did seem to be very little impact on traffic… it fact it seemed busier than I remembered when I went out… not quite sure what was going on…
  • This week was bonfire night, party celebration were somewhat subdued… however this did allow for practice on toasted marshmallow perfection and s’mores.. no lockdown shortages there!
  • Workwise, had an interesting conversation regarding staffing drivers in the industry… definitely more emphasis on digital skills and remote working… it really does seem things are changing.

Have a good week everyone… @chris_w_tweet

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Kicking the can down the road?

Posted on November 6, 2020 by Chris Warburton

Quite a busy week this week, what with lockdown restarting in England, and new tough restrictions in many other European countries, France, Italy and Belgium to mention a few. A second wave is really upon us now.

The UK government responded quickly with more support for the economy, £150 billion from the Bank of England, and a re-extension of Furlough until March.

Why this is March in order to cover a 4 week lockdown… it was not explained, but does not bode well. All the rumor was we will likely be in lockdown until in the new year… albeit with a suitable break for the holidays.

The FCA also responded with an extension of payment holiday support for mortgage holders and consumer loans, we warnings to “not contact your lender about this extended support just yet”.
Unlike last time this does not seem to have resulted in significant volumes of calls, although most were well prepared in any case.

The big question this raises is the impact of these measures on arrears volumes… will kick the expected delinquency peak down the road?

This is a critical question for many firms… some of whom have been hiring staff, others holding off… all trying to get the timing right, and with all the change it can be a tough call.

The consensus however seems to be that it will indeed move the expected peak from Oct/Nov this year to Jan-March next year…. (although counter to this thinking was a story on and increase in missed card payments)… mind you a lot could still change and it is one we will need to watch closely.

Other key stories this week

  • Consumer car finance volumes continues to be up … people need a car to get to work after all and it is safer than public transport
  • Third of staff ‘fear catching Covid at work‘… more pressure from employees to try to work from home if possible
  • Credit applications being declined due to lack of information … likely to be increasingly prevalent as historical data becomes less representative of today
  • Increasing house prices… but is this is bubble?

So, it looks like we are in this for quite a while longer… and likely the new normal… something we need to adapt to now.

Have a good weekend everyone… @chris_w_tweet

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Lockdown II: The Holiday Special…!

Posted on November 1, 2020 by Chris Warburton

Slowly this month, across Europe, we have been reentering a new period of lockdown… France, Germany, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Ireland and more all have new restrictions… whilst closer to home… Wales, Scotland, NI and last night (yes on Halloween) England also announced changes… so it is with a collective sigh of inevitability (not to mention a pack of toilet roll and bottle of wine) we start all over again… humph… still observations for this week.

  • With the lockdown due to start here on Thursday, face to face socialising now seems extra precious… lingering small talk over coffee before Thursday, a rush to be the one who puts the bins out or the school run, just to get out of the house, after that… all highly likely to happen!
  • Do birthday cards in the age of COVID now seem harder to buy… with my phone going off every few minutes with some funny meme or other, the bar for comedic value feels like it is being raised… unexpected!
  • Workwise, it really felt like things were getting back to normal recently, but now everything is up in the air again… all eyes are on Monday, the volume and the regulator, really to see what happens next… undoubtedly smoother than last time, but expecting more change.

Let’s see how it unfolds tomorrow… try to have a good week everyone… @chris_w_tweet

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