It feels like the developments each week are gradually starting to slow for now. Updates for this week.

The FCA released its updated guidance on the mortgage holiday scheme extension. There is definitely a direction towards the greater use of digital interaction, it being mentioned as a specific option (whilst also needing to provide alternatives). This of course is how most of the volume was managed first time around and is the main option for managing any extension. In addition, the guidance details customer options for exit and contacting customers early to discuss these. You just wonder if payment holidays (or deferrals) are going to be a much more popular feature going forward. However, the digitalization theme continues apace.

The other interesting news has been how the pandemic has suppressed the use of cash and hastened its decline. Nearly half of all payments last year were by card and reportedly now over 7m live life without cash. The direction to the cashless economy seems clear, and for some a concern.

Consumers also seem to be spending less in general, saving more. Some of this excess cash is clearly going to pay off credit card debt and loans. Clear sections of the population are managing just fine for now.

It feels like the situation is gradually stratifying into clear groups. Those that are managing easily or those struggling (or not at all) – this will be one to watch and treat carefully going forward.

More grim news on the jobs front, but other more subtle, some positive, changes are also being seen. The gradual change and retooling of the economy is also continuing.

• Hardly any passengers at Gatwick – will they ever return? Will this make flying a more pleasurable (albeit more expensive) in the future?
• Robotic deliveries in Milton Keynes. These have been around for a while, but seem to be successful, growing and undoubtedly useful these days. Will we see more of these in more locations?
• Online learning. Webinars are now everyday and with a wider move to online learning, will this put traditional courses and the price of online courses under pressure (upwards). The value of a course, is not just the knowledge mind you. The whole experience and who you meet on the course can in someways be almost as valuable and certainly as stimulating. I for one would miss this, and some students are clearly also disguntled. However this is also an opportunity to save time and access courses you would not normally be able to. Also with widespread internet access and remote working is this the opportunity that some parts of the world have been waiting for? parts of Africa for example – (where there is internet access I should add) – think economic development, this could be good news for many

Lastly, it seems like we are all not sleeping as well during all this (you are not alone). Fortunately, daylight, being outside helps – maybe this will help us all as lockdown eases and it is the summer.

More next week no doubt – have a good weekend everyone – @chris_w_tweet

Conversations this week have continued to centre around exit planning.

Although volumes of customers in arrears continue to be down, largely thanks to the government payment holidays, with over 1.5m payment holidays on cards and loan, and nearly 11m people on furlough there is plenty of concern that we are simply in the eye of the storm. The clock is ticking, interest still accruing and all this will all need to be unwound once the payment holiday schemes end. It could be ugly.

However we have been given the gift of notice and time for this. So exit planning, and using this ‘quieter’ time to plan for the known future is in many places underway – it is the smart thing to do. [At work we have been also refreshing our exit playbook, so happy to chat to anyone on this if interested]

But with all this talk of an ‘exit’ plan, in this post I wanted to pick issue with the work exit.

Exit implies a return, a return to normal, and the way things were, and I am not sure this is where we are headed.

Research (and maths) is pointing to a much more prolonged cycle, likely a second wave and some experts are starting to discuss the likely reality that coronavirus will never go away.

So it is any likely exit plan, in reality, need to be more of a transformation plan to invest now and set up the infrastructure for the future. So to help provoke discussion I have added some thoughts and questions below

• Remote infrastructure – working from home, schooling from home will continue. Set up connectivity, think about your place of work and the working environment at home, and for homeschooling too
• Remote working – Can this all be done remotely? How? Do employees only come in the office once a month… or at all? How do you keep teamwork and motivation high? (schools need to think about this too). What about new hires and training?
• Office infrastructure – do you need as much office space? In a central location? What will the offices need to look like? More fun, collaboration, social – if people are infrequently in the function of the office will likely change
• Digital journeys – how can 100% digital journeys be created? How can the number of clicks been reduced – it is all about removing customer friction
• Fraud – Fraudster activity has seen a significant jump through this crisis. Digital is an opportunity for them, as with lower costs they can make more attempts. Make sure you and your company processes are protected (some discussion on whether this will hit FinTechs hard this week). How are you looking at this?
• Supply chain shortages – another lockdown or spike in cases could result in another supply chain crisis. Are you prepared?
• Business model – will this change? Some of the things we did before may no longer happen, how do you stay ahead of this curve?

For this new reality, the lucky money has the infrastructure already, the smart money, however [in my view] is using this time to invest and prepare now.

This may not be optimistic, but getting ready now, whilst we have this short window of opportunity will likely pay dividends in the future. We will be prepared and be on the front foot this time.

Have a good weekend everyone …. @chris_w_tweet