…don’t pave the cow path

Posted on March 21, 2021 by Chris Warburton

With schools back, daily life is increasingly resembling some form of normality. However, Easter is around the corner and thoughts are now turning to summer holidays. The potential for continued travel restrictions over the summer was not great news this week. Hopefully, things continue to improve and we avoid them… a summer ice cream on the beach would be just the ticket at the moment… something to visualize this week to keep me going!

Still a few observations this week.

  • Have you ever noticed how pets (my cat in this instance), sleep all day, stand up, stretch, then just turn around and go back to bed… mind you maybe they think this about us too… on zoom calls humans watch a screen all day, stand up, stretch and then just watch the screen again!
  • Workwise, a discussion re-arose this week on digital transformation, an area of focus the last 12months for sure. However, are we just digitizing what we have already? There is new plenty of new capability and interesting functionality that can fundamentally change processes… Communications is an interesting area in particular.

Expecting a busy week next week, so time for a quick rest, stretch and rest, before the weekend is over… have a good week everyone.

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… and the orchestra plays on

Posted on March 19, 2021 by Chris Warburton

From on ro-ar.com

What is up in the second charge mortgage and car finance market?

New figures from the FLA this week show new business fell by 40% YOY in January and t was a similar situation in the consumer car finance market, 35% down. Even in mortgages more generally, households seem to be paying down by record amounts too.

With the pandemic situation now passing a year, it really does appears as if this latest lockdown has been different. It has certainly felt different, but now the data is showing how were are normalizing this more and more.

A good example is car sales. In the first lockdown, sales were up. We all seemed to need cars to avoid public transport. Many people also took advantage of stamp duty holidays, moving out of the city partly to avoid COVID, driving the property market too.

This time around on lockdown, there is less need for change. In fact, for many, it clearly seems a good opportunity to pay down debt.

However, government economic support is also starting to recede. What about those who are more impacted and find themselves at risk of financial difficulty? We seem to hear less about this recently too.

Employment in fact has started to tickup (currently 5.1%), albeit less than previous peaks in the last financial crisis, the 80’s and 90’s.

With 4.7million people still on furlough support in the UK, you wonder how much this support is helping with these figures. Without furlough another 7+% could quickly be added to the unemployment rate, taking it to historic highs. (Indeed the unemployment rate does appear to have trended up the last few months).

With the furlough scheme now extended until July and September, we still have some time, and hopefully the economy will roar back to life as quickly as lockdown started.

However, I cannot shake a sense of us seemingly slowly, having to pick our way through an increasingly dense iceberg field in the fog. Silent but dangerous, all may seem quiet but still time to prepare and get ready.

Other stories of interest this week

Have a good week everyone.

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The work-life-school balance

Posted on March 14, 2021 by Chris Warburton

With many schools in the UK restarting last week, this week marks a big step for many parents… the end of homeschooling.

Hopefully a change in the right direction for all of us. Some quick observations so far.

  • Time seemed to change in nature with the week passing at a different rate as the structure of the day changed… not sure if this is good or not yet!
  • The was change was felt by the kids too, with a comment that is maybe a portent for our own return to the office… “too many people, all day, it is exhausting”!
  • Lastly, workwise, I also heard several discussions, let’s say, take a jovial, yet more relaxed tone last week… a bit more of the office banter returned.

We will get used to it, just hope we can keep this going. Have a good week everyone…

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